Oct 13, 2021; Indian Wells, CA, USA; Daniil Medvedev (RUS) shakes hands with Grigor Dimitrov (BUL) after their fourth round match during the BNP Paribas Open at the Indian Wells Tennis Garden. Mandatory Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports
- After a 12-month lull, Daniil Medvedev seems to be finding form in Rotterdam this week
- Also in form is unseeded Grigor Dimitrov, Medvedev’s opponent in Saturday’s semifinal
- Medvedev is a strong favorite; we break down the matchup and make a prediction
On paper, this bottom-half semifinal in Rotterdam was to be No. 2 seed Andrey Rublev vs. No. 3 seed and defending champion Félix Auger-Aliassime. But No. 6 Daniil Medvedev and unseeded Grigor Dimitrov had other plans.
Medvedev vs Dimitrov Odds
| Daniil Medvedev (RUS)||-4.5 (+105)||-470||O 21.5 (-115)|
|Grigor Dimitrov (BUL)||+4.5 (-135)||+330||U 21.5 (-115)|
Odds as of Feb. 17 at Caesars Sportsbook.
In Friday’s quarterfinal, Medvedev dashed the hopes of Auger-Aliassime, who was attempting to defend an ATP Tour title for the first time in his career.
The 6-,2, 6-4 victory had much to do with the Canadian’s poor serving; when Auger-Aliassime is serving at that level, the rest of his game generally gets dragged down with it. And that’s what happened.
First top10 win
🕯 for Daniil Medvedev 🕯
🕯 🕯 pic.twitter.com/UOASIakLDY
— kr9pton (@kr9ptonlul) February 17, 2023
Medvedev did what he had to do. But he didn’t have a ton to do on the day, and likely was pretty surprised that he was able to get through in less than an hour and a half.
It was the first time in more than a year that Medvedev (who became No. 1 for the first time at the end of February 2022), had beaten a top-10 player.
He beat two in that tournament, the 2022 Australian Open: Auger-Aliassime (in a five-set heartbreaker for the Canadian) and Stefanos Tsitsipas before a tough, tough loss to Rafael Nadal in the final that likely took all this time to get out of his system.
Medvedev vs Dimitrov Head-to-Head
|27 (Feb. 11, 1996)||Age||31 (May 16, 1991)|
|Moscow, Russia||Birthplace||Haskovo, Bulgaria|
|15||Career ATP Singles Titles||8|
|No. 1 (Feb. 28, 2022)||Career-Best Ranking||No. 3 (Nov. 20, 2017)|
|No. 11||Current Ranking||No. 28|
|$26,791,509||Career Prize Money||$22,221,047|
|8-2||2022 Won/Loss Record||6-2|
Dimitrov Rolling Through Rotterdam
Dimitrov is on the back end of his career now, even though he’s only 31. And if he’s accepted that he might not ever get to the very, very top of the men’s game, it doesn’t mean he’s not capable of excellent tennis.
He retains the quality that most epitomizes the men’s game at the moment; speed.
And he looks like he’s still enjoying it.
The reaction says it all! 🔥
— Tennis TV (@TennisTV) February 17, 2023
The Bulgarian was in a good section in Rotterdam, with Alex de Minaur upsetting No. 2 seed Andrey Rublev in the first round. Dimitrov took care of No. 5 Hubert Hurkacz in two tiebreakers. And then he took out De Minaur.
He had to save a couple of match points to do it, as well.
Medvedev vs Dimitrov Match History
|2022||Vienna (SF)||Indoor Hard||6-4, 6-2||Medvedev|
|2021||Indian Wells (R16)||Outdoor Hard||4-6, 6-4, 6-3||Dimitrov|
|2021||Cincinnati (R16)||Outdoor Hard||6-3, 6-3||Medvedev|
|2019||US Open (SF)||Outdoor Hard||7-6 (5), 6-4, 6-3||Medvedev|
|2017||Washington (R16)||Outdoor Hard||6-4 6-2||Medvedev|
|2017||Queen’s Club||Grass||6-3, 3-6, 6-3||Dimitrov|
On a Run of Form, Dimitrov beat Medvedev at Indian Wells
The last time Dimitrov defeated Medvedev – indeed, the first time since he took care of him on grass back in 2017 – came in the fall edition of Indian Wells in 2021.
Dimitrov had withstood big-serving Reilly Opelka, then posted the comeback win over Medvedev. And then he outlasted Hubert Hurkacz in a third-set tiebreak before falling to eventual champion Cameron Norrie.
Just more evidence that when Dimitrov is on, he can beat most players on the day. His problem in recent years is that he just hasn’t risen to that level often enough, or consistently enough. Hence his current ranking of No. 28.
2023 French Open Odds Tracker
Medvedev vs Dimitrov Prediction
The only previous time the two met indoors was in Vienna last fall. And Medvedev, even if he wasn’t in great form, took care of Dimitrov fairly routinely.
He’s looking more like himself, a few months on. Dimitrov might be game to do a lot of running, and he may well be competitive and make Medvedev work for it.
But in the end, the Russian should prevail in a competitive encounter.
Medvedev vs Dimitrov Pick: Over 21.5 Games (-115)
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Stephanie gets the straight dope from the tennis insiders. On court, she has represented her country internationally. A BA in journalism led to years on the MLB beat and a decade covering tennis globally. She’s written for Postmedia, the Guardian, the New York Times and also publishes OpenCourt.ca.