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London Mayoral Odds: Sadiq Khan Tipped To Crush Conservative Susan Hall



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Joe Short
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London Mayoral Odds: Sadiq Khan Tipped To Crush Conservative Susan Hall

Betting sites expect Sadiq Khan to win the London mayor election this week despite fresh polls suggesting his lead over Conservative candidate Susan Hall is shrinking.

Mr Khan has been Mayor of London since succeeding Boris Johnson in 2016 and has enjoyed an odds-on price for re-election since UK bookmakers opened their markets.

London Mayoral Election Odds

The Labour candidate is seeking a third term in office and much of the policy discussion this spring has been on his pledge to expand the Ultra Low Emissions Zone (ULEZ) across London.

ULEZ aims to reduce pollution in the capital but those against it argue they are being punished for driving higher-polluting cars. It has become such a contentious topic that many rivals to Khan have pledged to scrap ULEZ altogether.

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Ms Hall is the biggest campaigner against the expansion and is banking a successful campaign on it. She has endured a number of gaffes in the lead-up to the vote and has struggled in the polls up until the last few weeks.

Green candidate Zoe Garbett and Rob Blackie of the Liberal Democrats are not expected to make much of an impact, while there are also a handful of independents running.

But bookmakers remain confident that Mr Khan will win the election despite the ULEZ wedge issue rising to the surface.

London Mayoral Election Odds

Every political betting site has priced Mr Khan as the big favourite to win the London mayoral election. 

So much so that some have sunk his odds to 1/20 – a price that represents a 95.2% probability.

Ms Hall, by comparison, is out at 10/1 and her odds haven’t really shifted much this year.

Ms Garbett and Mr Blackie, meanwhile, are out at 200/1.

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Amazingly, bookmakers have taken roughly the same amount of bets on Mr Khan as they have Ms Hall. 

The pair share 84% of the market yet Mr Khan’s odds are overwhelmingly short in comparison. 

It’s only the sheer weight of bettors speculating on a Conservative victory here that is preventing Ms Hall’s price from ballooning further.

And yet, the bookies are keeping a close eye on this market amid fresh polling figures that suggest Mr Khan’s lead over his direct rival has almost halved in just a few weeks.

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Who Will Win The London Election?

The 2024 London mayoral election has been pitched as a toss-up between Labour and the Tories for months.

Mr Khan has a natural poll lead because voters are usually back a consistency candidate if they have no major reasons not to.

Ms Hall, meanwhile, has endured a rollercoaster campaign filled with media gaffes. She is also depicted in the Evening Standard as being shackled by the Conservatives’ poor nationwide reputation.

Yet Ms Hall remains the go-to vote for many who don’t want to back Labour or Mr Khan, or who want to protest against ULEZ.

And it’s this that the bookies are watching closely. Polling from the Mile End Institute at Queen Mary University of London has found Mr Khan’s lead on his rival has fallen from 25 points to 13.

The jump is significant as it is trending against nationwide opinion polls of the Tories.

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It appears as though battlegrounds in South and West London have opened up. Mr Khan has a 19-point and 17-point lead in North and East London, but just eight percent on the other side of town.

Interestingly, there is little appetite among right-wing voters to ditch the Conservative option for Reform UK. 

Their candidate Howard Cox is polling at just 2% and betting apps price him at 100/1 to win. 

It’s not a surprise that just 2% of voters are also betting on him as an outside punt.

Londoners will vote on Thursday, May 2nd for the continuity candidate Mr Khan, or the change candidate Ms Hall.

Mr Khan won 55-44 on a supplementary vote system three years ago. This time it’s ‘first past the post’. He should claim more votes than his direct rival but the bookies maintain a slender chance of Ms Hall winning.

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Joe Short

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