The Big Game kickoff is just hours away… but that doesn’t mean there still isn’t value to be found. Jason Logan looks at some Super Bowl picks that you can still make… which are offering good betting value.
The countdown to kickoff is on its final ticks with the Super Bowl just hours away.
Whether you’ve waited until the last minute to place your Super Bowl predictions or you’re looking to add some additional wagers on the Super Bowl odds, here are some last-minute Big Game bets holding value due to the late line moves.
These aren’t necessarily my personal bets, but they do present the best of the odds for these particular plays — make sure to shop around to get the best odds to fit your Chiefs vs. 49ers predictions!
Super Bowl picks to make right now
- Over 46.5 Points
- Travis Kelce Under 6.5 Receptions
- Christian McCaffrey Under 18.5 Rushing Attempts
- Nick Bosa Over 0.25 Sacks
Super Bowl picks to make last-minute
Over 46.5 points
The Super Bowl Over/Under was holding steady at 47.5 for the majority of the last two weeks, but here on game day we’re seeing Under money slim the number at select sportsbooks. There are a few shops down to 47 points, which is a key number in football total betting, and FanDuel is dealing 46.5 O/U.
If you like the Over, this is a great spot to get in on the best of the number. A 47-point total hasn’t been available since Super Bowl LVIII odds hit the board on January 28 and 46.5 points is the lowest this number has been in that two-week window.
Now, it appears late money from sharps is siding with the Under, as the public pushes for the Over. But if you couldn’t care less who likes what, you’re getting the best total to take the Over right now in the hours before the 6:30 p.m. ET kickoff
Travis Kelce Under 6.5 receptions
Travis Kelce odds have been the most popular prop markets for Super Bowl LVIII, with his uptick in performance in the playoffs (and high-profile romance with Taylor Swift) helping boost his appeal to the casual gambler.
Kelce’s reception total opened at 6.5 (Over -132) and jumped as high as 7.5 (Over +120) earlier in the week, but most books have come back down to the 6.5 catch total with the Over sitting as juicy as -160 at some books.
Covers’ player prop projections for No. 87 bounce around that number with some short of 6.5 and others just on the other side (as many as 6.9 receptions). But with the Under now paying out as high as +130 in the hours before kickoff, the value is in swooping in and pushing back against the public.
Kelce will be the focal point of San Francisco’s defense with two of the best coverage linebackers in Dre Greenlaw and Fred Warner tasked with slowing down the Chiefs tight end. Kelce had only five catches on six targets in the Divisional Round win over Buffalo and has recorded seven or more grabs in just seven of his 18 total outings this season.
Covers Super Bowl betting tools
Christian McCaffrey Under 18.5 rushing attempts
If the 49ers are going to win Super Bowl 58, it will take a lot of Christian McCaffrey.
The newly crowned Offensive Player of the Year is the ultimate weapon, especially on the ground and facing a Kansas City run defense that ranks in the bottom third of the league.
McCaffrey’s rushing attempts total opened at 18.5 with -115 vig on their side. That didn’t last long and the juice on the Over quickly climbed as high as -130 with the Under then offered at EVEN money. Each time it hit that tipping point, books took Under money and moved the price on the Over back down.
On game day, the Over 18.5 on CMC’s carries is at -140 and books are dangling the +110 carrot on the Under. Player forecasts for McCaffrey have his rushing attempts projected as low as 16.7 with many models coming up short of 18.5 attempts.
The Under 18.5 +110 is very appealing if you like Kansas City to come out swinging and force San Francisco to play from behind, turning McCaffrey into a pass catcher rather than a ball carrier.
Pick: Christian McCaffrey Under 18.5 rushing attempts (+110 at )
Nick Bosa Over 0.25 Sacks
The 49ers’ pass rush isn’t as aggressive as the Chiefs and for the most part, was somewhat subdued during the season.
San Francisco ranked middle of the road in pressure rate but collected 48 sacks — tied for seventh most — with 10.5 of those sacks coming from standout DL Nick Bosa.
Bosa will be key in slowing down Mahomes and is coming off a two-sack performance in the NFC Championship win over Detroit. He’s recorded one sack in each of his two matchups with the Chiefs and faces a Kansas City OL missing an important cog in Joe Thuney.
Bosa’s sack total for Super Bowl LVIII opened at 0.25 (Over -118) but the market hasn’t been hot on the Niners defensive stalwart. That Over 0.25 sacks is sitting as high as +112 at BetRivers’ sportsbooks with three and a half hours to go before kickoff.
Pick: Nick Bosa Over 0.25 sacks (+112 at )
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